So, the pollsters were – for once in the last couple of years – absolutely spot-on. The two candidates for the second round of the French Presidential election in just under a couple of weeks’ time, will be the centrist Emmanuel Macron and the populist Marine Le Pen. And if the pollsters are even roughly […]
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The last Budget on 16 March now seems a distant memory from a past era. Back then the Chancellor was George Osborne, the Prime Minister was David Cameron, the UK looked likely to remain a member of the EU after 23 June and Donald Trump was not considered a serious US presidential candidate. Wind forward […]
‘Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?’ – Robert Orben Political watching from a European time zone in 2016 has all been about the hour from 2am to 3am (London time). In late June, consensus expectations of a Brexit referendum ‘remain’ […]
The key event this week is the U.S. elections. Not long ago, market participants were convinced that Ms. Clinton was set to win, and some even considered that weak polls for Trump could result in the Democrats’ controlling Congress. This is no longer the case. The polls indicate a very tight race. Below are the most likely outcomes […]
Leadership is not about the next election, it’s about the next generation’ Simon Sinek Politicians come and go…but there are times when political leadership choices by an electorate matter more than normal. The US economy has clearly been the strongest of the major developed markets over the last seven or eight years, since the depths of […]
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